2016 MISSOURI SENATE RACE

2016 MISSOURI SENATE RACE

Rodolfo del Pueyo Parra

Wesleyan University

Govt 232 – Campaigns and Elections

December 2016

1. Introduction. 2. Demographics. 3. Candidates and Campaigns. 4. Electoral Results. 5. Theories to Apply.

1. Introduction.

This project is aimed at having a better understanding of the reasons behind the results of the 2016 Missouri Election that won the incumbent Roy Blunt (R). In order to do so, we will introduce some facts relevant to the election, such as demographics and population distribution within the state. Afterward, we will focus on the candidates, the course their campaigns took, and the financial aspect of those, as well as their bases and the main issues the candidates have focused on. We will examine both Kander's and Blunt's campaigns. The next step will be to dissect the electoral results. Here, we will be able to connect the results of this race with the results of the Presidential election in Missouri, as well as with the gubernatorial election, also held on November 8. We will try to verify certain possible effects that these elections could have produced on the Senate election. In the second part of the study, we will use some theories seen in class to explain different aspects of this election. Also, we will give an explanation as to why some of the theories and perspectives can be applied to this race whilst others cannot.

2. Demographics .

In Missouri, 77.1% out of the barely 6 million people are over 18 years old. There are more women than men aged over 18 (51.3% to 48.7%). As for the race, this is a state with a larger white population than the nation average (79.8% compared to 61.6%). Consequently, the black population percentage (11.8% to 13.3%), the Asian (2.0% compared to 5.6%), the Latino population percentage (4.1% compared to 17.6%) and the percentage of people of two or more races (2.2% to 2.6%) are lower than the national percentages. In Missouri, 9.8% of the adult-age range population is veteran, a higher percentage than the national average (8.1%). In terms of education, Missourian population is altogether better educated than the nation average, thus the 88.4% of the population over 25 years old has a high school degree or higher, compared to the 86.7% of the national average. Considering the geographical distribution of the population, Missouri's rural population percentage is 9.6 points higher than the national one (30.6% compared to 21%) .

In terms of party identification, data retrieved from Gallup leads to describe Missouri as a "lean-Republican" State in 2015. The results from the survey show that 45.5% of the people interviewed identified or leaned towards the GOP, and 37.6% identified or leaned towards the Democratic Party. In terms of self-identified ideology, 39.7% of the interviewees saw themselves as conservatives, 35% as moderates, and 19.7% as liberals. Also, the rates of Obama were considerably lower in Missouri than in the rest of the country (37 in Missouri and 46 national wide) .

3. Candidates and Campaigns.

The candidate for the Republican Party was the incumbent Roy Blunt, 66 years old. He became Senator for Missouri in 2010, after winning the open seat left by the Republican Bond. Blunt won that election with a margin of more than 14 points over the Democrat candidate Carnahan. Before that, he had been Secretary of State of Missouri from 1985 to 1993, and a member of the House of Representatives from 1997 to 2011. In the House, he was part of the Republican leadership as the Republican "whip" for more than five years until he ran for the Senate. Hereby, Blunt can be considered as a well-experienced politician.

Blunt brought five different groups together to endorse him. One of those were Veterans groups have shown support for Blunt, as he was awarded the Lifetime Achievement Award by the Missouri Department of the Veterans of Foreign Wars. This was an important endorsement to counteract the lack of military service of Blunt and Kander's status of Army Veteran. He was also endorsed by groups of farmers, which is an important endorsement as Missouri has the second largest amount of farms in the US and it is an important sector for its economy . The Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters, the largest firefighter organization in Missouri, also showed its support to Blunt. Furthermore, an "Enforce the Law" coalition was formed, focussing on security issues and immigration. Other groups to form a coalition supporting Blunt was labeled as "Sportsmen". It represented mainly anglers, hunters, and "law-abiding gun owners", being one of their main interests the gun regulations.

During his campaign, Blunt focused fundamentally on trying to tie Kander's candidacy to Clinton and the Obama Administration and attacking ObamaCare. Blunt's campaign constantly made references of Kander as a rubber-stamp candidate of Clinton and other democrat leaders' proposals. Also, he portrayed himself as the right candidate to have lower taxes and smaller government, to have a strong enforcement of the law, to defend gun rights and to address the main issues due to his bipartisan agenda.

The Democrat candidate was the Secretary of State of Missouri Jason Kander, 35 years old. He is an Army Veteran who served in Afghanistan. Before becoming Secretary of State in 2012, Kander was a member of the Missouri House of Representatives since 2008. Thus, he was a much less experienced candidate than Blunt.

Kander's coalition was formed basically by five different collectives . One of them representing the black community. With it, Kander sought support from black voters showing his position in favor of the "Black Lives Matter" movement. Hence, Kander addressed the relationship of the police with the black community and other policies that adversely affect black citizens, such as ID voting laws or problems as recidivism and mass incarceration. Other group supporting Kander was the one formed by "educators". With this, Kander focused on the of education, backing the rights of teachers and educational professionals to join a union. This coalition, although through education as the previous one, was mainly formed by young Missourians. Other coalition backing Kander was the one of "Veterans and Military Families". Kander,

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