Sommet APEC : les enjeux de la rencontre de Xi et Biden

For Biden, a Subtle Shift in the Power Balance With China’s Xi Jinping

introduction :
- Two weeks ago, the Chinese president Xi Jinping came to California for the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation). It was the first time since 6 years that China's president came to U.S. Of course, full attention was in particular towarded to the meet of the US president and Xi : a private conversation of 4 hours during wich the diplomatic world was very anxious on how the conversation was going. So what's all the fuss about?
- it was the first time the two presidents met in a year since the G20 early 2022 in Indonesia. After that encounter, the two presidents declared that the communications will be reestalished beetween the two countries.

- 5 months before → The visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taïwan was condemned by the People's Republic of China (PRC), which sent warnings through diplomatic channels to the U.S. government

- Last year, the case of the spy-balloon caused the report of a visit of Antony Blinken (the actual U.S. secretary of state) who finaly visited China in June 2023

- an encounter prepared upstream :

        - Janet Yellen et Lan Foan met each other at San Francisco

        - Antony Blinken also prepared a few questions during its diplomatic trip in June

why so much preparatives ? :
- the Sino-American relationship is extremely influential on the balance of power in the rest of the world, due to the economic and military power of the two countries; indicators of their respective integration in the workings of the world:

                - security issues for the US, and economic issues for China

                - economic stakes for China's many partners throughout Asia and the Middle East

                - protection of Taiwan

                - more recently, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: China has taken a clear stance in support of Hamas, and condemns Israel's actions -> "China is a good friend and brother to Arab and Muslim countries" declares Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who replaced a predecessor close to the US
- Even if Xi seems less aggressive, more pacifist, he's still far from content with his country's current position "the world is big enough for two". China has always been keen to "put an end to American hegemony".

- this possibility is mentioned in the article, which begs the question: is it a "lasting shift or a tactical maneuver"?

        - in a first time, we’ll see that the meet of the two superpowers leaders was a success

        - Then, that this conclusion of the meet must bee nuanced because some old problematics are still unsolved
         - at last, we'll try to analyse China's politics more deeply : who decides and what are the main goals of the country ?

I – the success of the meet

 1) reestablishment of the military links beetween the two countries

- re-establishment of military ties and easing of tensions -> a success

- maritime military communication agreements → important because of the nuclear submarines of China (factor of the Taïwan question)

- regular exchanges between defense ministries →

Xi : "call me if you have any problems"

2) The great volunted of China to go forward in the technologic domain

- China has decided to set up a special group on the dangers of artificial intelligence, particularly in the nuclear field, whereas one might have imagined a reluctance on the part of the country to become fully involved in this type of action.

3) The goal to establish better commercial links too

- fentanyl -> first cause of dies in U.S. → precursor chemicals for fentanyl had been had been made illegal by the Chinese government

first transition : Knowing that China and US have a friendlier relation is a news that has for sure reassured a great part of the planet. US and China are the two biggest economic and military power and also the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases. A great relation between those two also means a futur that’s easier to build. But, as we said before, China's living a hard time. Can we really believe in this future between those two countries even though China has always declared its desire to (i quote) « put an end to american hegemony »

II – but some old problematics hadn’t been solved yet

1) US are still very precocious about Ukraine, Taïwan, Gaza or every military sector

Biden stayed very humble and didn’t ask a lot in the military domains

- the US contented itself with insisting only on the re-establishment of military communications (reflecting US concerns about China's reaction and future Sino-American relations with the very likely arrival of the Republicans) -> no longer decoupling but de-risking

 - "He's a dictator" -> Antony Blinken's reaction, which has become a trademark, speaks volumes about US concerns about relations with China.

2) visions doesn’t always converge ; on the contrary  :

The two countries still disagree from the military point

- Antony Blinken en Chine en Juin -> proposed to maintain an economic and technologic concurrence beetween the two countries but not military

        → Doesn’t make sense for China : interconnected domains

the problematic parteners of China

- China has often sold arms to Iran and North Korea, which displeases American diplomacy. On the other hand, arms will probably not be banned for all that…

Ukraine

- Ms Yelen -> had already asked in advance whether the export of arms parts sold by China to Russia could not be stopped as soon as possible.

in China itself

- In China, conflict between two visions of the economy → Xi Jinping is still in favor of greater security, which sometimes discourages investors, coupled with Trump's tarrif and the Chinese economy is plunging.

economic point of view:

microchips, which in this relationship are one of the sinews of war (there is indeed an important difference in viewpoint: Xi sees his chips as an economic stranglehold, whereas Biden sees them as a national security issue). Certain tariffs created under Trump will remain unchanged under Biden and in the future, whatever the outcome of the next American elections.

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