Brexit

Brexit" is an abbreviation of "British Exit", meaning leaving the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU). On 23 June 2016, in a referendum organised by former Prime Minister David Cameron, 51.9% of the British people chose to leave the EU. Following the launch of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on 29 March 2017, the United Kingdom and the 27 other Member States of the European Union estimated a two-year period to prepare for the country's effective exit. Until 29 March 2019, the country therefore remains a member of the EU.

Prime Minister Theresa May, appointed in July 2016 and reappointed in June 2017, leads discussions on her country's exit with a team of negotiators representing the EU.

I) The origin of the referendum.

In 2013, former Prime minister David Cameron promised a referendum on Britain in the European Union if Conservative Party won the next election. This response to a group of Eurosceptic Conservative Mps rebelling against him.

This political maneuver paid off initially as Cameron led his unified party to victory in 2015.

As the Head of Government keeps his promise, he announces that the referendum will take place on 23 June 2016.

The Leave group argued that the Union had a lack of democraty and undermined national sovereignty, particularly around issues regarding immigration and regulations.

The Remain group argued that leaving the EU would hurt UK prosperity, cost jobs, damage their international standing and be risk to national security.

With 51.9% of the votes, it was the "Leave" camp that won the election day. Participation was over 72%, a record for the country. David Cameron, who had campaigned to keep the country in the European Union, chose to resign a few days after the result. He was replaced by former Interior Minister Theresa May.

II) The different negotiations

On 29 March 2017, a letter confirming the triggering of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on the conditions for leaving a Member State of the European Union marked the starting point of the negotiation process.

Among the subjects under negotiation are the invoice for leaving the United Kingdom, the free movement of persons, the status of European citizens in the United Kingdom and the status of British citizens in the European Union, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, as well as all regulations on goods and services.

Formal negotiations between London and the European Union begin on 19 June in Brussels. On 29 January 2018, the 27 Member States agreed on the duration of the post-Brexit transition period, which will last for 21 months, from 30 March 2019 to 30 December 2020. This will enable both sides to prepare their future relations more calmly, in particular through trade agreements. On 8 December 2017, London and Brussels also agreed on three main principles: the non-establishment of a long-lasting border between the two Ireland, the payment by London of all its commitments under the EU budget for 2014-2020, and the preservation, after Brexit, of the rights of British citizens already resident in the other Member States, and vice versa.

After 17 months of talks, the British government finally announced on 13 November 2018 that a general agreement on the UK's exit from the EU had been reached in Brussels. If no alternative was found at the end of the transitional period, the latter would temporarily avoid the re-establishment of a physical border between the two Ireland by keeping the whole United Kingdom in a customs union with the EU (this is called the "backstop", or "safety net").

However, after a first postponement of the vote, this exit agreement was massively rejected by the House of Commons on January 15.

Theresa May therefore announced that she would "reopen" negotiations with Brussels to find an acceptable alternative.

III) The Stakes of Brexit

With regard to the political consequences, for some, with Brexit, the European Union would lose one of its three greatest powers, one of its most important financial places in the world, and the United States' first diplomatic partner in Europe and one of the only European states with a significant regular army.

For others, it can help to strengthen the European Union because the United Kingdom is historically one of the countries least in favour of European integration.

Regarding the economic consequences, The United Kingdom will by definition lose the benefit of free trade agreements between the EU and its partners around the world.

It will then take years of negotiations with its trading partners to complete the various negotiations initiated by a Brexit.

With the raising of tariff barriers, English exports pay more customs duties. So sectors such as manufacturing or aeronautics, with Airbus and BMW for example, may leave to stay in Europe. Many companies use the UK as a gateway to Europe. However, some of them warned that they would relocate their European headquarters in case of Brexit. With Brexit, there is a decline in Chinese and US investment. Large companies are relocating, which has the effect of cutting jobs for the British.

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