Est-ce vraiment la fin du pétrole en Norvège dans les prochaines décennies? (document en anglais)

I Introduction

Country of 4.5 million people, Norway is the sixth largest exporter of oil in the world and the second for gas. OCDE (2011) Synonymous with financial wealth, this should put away any concerns regarding pension funding while maintaining a steady growth in the next years. In comparison to other European countries, Norway has additional advantages especially due to relatively dynamic demographics which will lead to an aging population less pronounced than elsewhere with a low unemployment rate of 3.5%.The activity rates and employment rates for age greater than 55 years with an age statutory retirement late set at 67 years OCDE (2011). These favorable items which makes envious most European governments, however, have not provided Norway the question of the long-term implications of a double phenomenon: The reduction in oil production after 2005 due to the exhaustion of this not renewable resource, which should significantly reduce oil tax revenues, a sharp increase in spending on pensions and disability caused by aging population and the maturity of the second floor of the public pension system. In this report we will determine what will be the economic and social situation in Norway in 2030 by determining what measures have been taken to ensure steady growth of the economy when the reserves will be exhausted.

But there is one main question in this report: Is it really the end of oil in Norway in the next decades?

II Demand and supply: today to 2030

The balance between supply and demand is mostly caused by a physical constraint: the amount of oil consumed cannot exceed which is produced, if we neglect the use of stocks (those stocks, commercial and strategic represent few months of consumption). Supply and demand are in balance between adding new production capacity on one hand, rising demand and decline of the old capacity on the other side. For thirty years Statoil is exploring the floor of the Arctic Ocean. The retreat of the ice combined by a treaty concluded in 2010 between Oslo and Moscow delimiting their common maritime border after decades of conflict which have intensified the heat of the oil companies. With the resolution of a dispute over the maritime border in the Barents Sea with Russia, Oslo has a new oil exploration area of 175,000 km ²Joel Bowman (2012). It is a very important issue because, according to the American Society Geological Survey, the above region could contain 90 billion barrels of oil and a third of likely global gas reserves. Norwegians, who have only surveys dating from the Soviet era, questioned these estimates, based on "geological probabilities." "A little Kuwait" might be under the ice. Exploration began in January 2012 and Statoil, 70% owned by the Norwegian state, has made an important discovery. The significant oil discovery announced by the Norwegian company Statoil confirms, if need be, that the Arctic Ocean is one of the Eldorados decades to come for hydrocarbons. Norvegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy2012

Statoil estimates the oil reserves of this field” Havis” between 200 and 300 million barrels. These are added to the volume equivalent discovered during spring 2012 in the neighboring wells “Skrugard”. These exploration licenses are located in the Barents Sea, around 200 kilometers from the northern coast of Norway.

Statoil already operates five years on a Gas production in this area, the “Snohvit”, closer to the coast. Although estimates of geologists remain the subject of debate, a part of Statoil believes that the Arctic Ocean would contain one-fifth of the world's oil. These resources are very complex, and therefore expensive to operate because of geographic isolation and drift of icebergs.

This Figure 1 Mb 50 Norway 2012

Technical control, which is devoid by Russia, explains in large part why Gazprom invited the Norwegian company (up to 24%) alongside the French Total (25%) to share the exploitation of the

“Shtokman” gas field in the Russian part of the Barents Sea. The three partners have had to launch in late December 2011 the first phase of the project, but the decision was postponed until late March 2012. Negotiations stumbled upon the tax system. The partners say, however, determined to launch the first phase in the spring of 15 billion dollars of investment to exploit the 3.7 trillion cubic meters or 80 years of French consumption. Christophe de Margerie(2012)

III What about Shale gas?

Norway in 2008 was the second largest exporter of gas after Russia. The Norwegian gas sector covers 40 production fields and a network of 8,000 km of pipelines with receiving terminals located in four countries: Germany, Belgium, Great Britain and France. 99% of the gas produced is exported to Norway, including a large quantity to Europe. The share of imports in Norway gas amounts to 25% for all EU countries, and 31% for France. In other words, especially for France, Norway is the leading supplier in three meal cooked on a Norwegian gas .Statistics Norway 2012

As confirmed figure 2, it is estimated that the Norwegian continental shelf contained a total of approximately 6000 billion cubic meters of gas, of which 1 200 billion have already been extracted. Norwegian exports should continue to increase until 2012-2013 and then stabilize for a period of thirty to forty years. This means that Norway will remain a key supplier to the stabilization of the production for at least another generation.

Figure 2

To diversify its asset portfolio, the Scandinavian company is relieved in the spring of its units by a network of underwater pipelines, “Gassled”, for an amount of € 2.2 billion. In October 2012, it launched a takeover bid for Brigham Exploration to the tune of € 3.4 billion to take control of oil deposits and shale gas in North Dakota and Montana in the United States. Following a year of discovery, coupled with this major acquisition, Statoil is expecting the well to reach its production target for 2020 at 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Norvegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy2012

Research activities and extraction on the base are organized in a Norwegian concession transparent system, cost-based and non-discriminatory. The infrastructures in the North Sea are the property of “Gassled”, including joint venture composed by StatoilHydro, ExxonMobil and Total. These companies, and others, are also users of the system. In addition, the gas transportation system is managed in “the Norwegian side” by Gassco” an independent operator. This choice was made by the government for companies

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