Valuation report, the automotive industry
Cours : Valuation report, the automotive industry. Recherche parmi 300 000+ dissertationsPar pranav sarawagi • 22 Août 2019 • Cours • 525 Mots (3 Pages) • 676 Vues
Sector Overview.
- The automotive industry comprises a wide range of companies and organizations involved in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and selling of motor vehicles.
- Strong Market in terms of both, the domestic demand and exports.
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- India has significant cost advantages; auto firms save 10-25 per cent on operations.
- Two-wheelers are by far the most popular form of vehicle in India, taking an 80 per cent share in 2015-16. India became the largest two-wheeler market in the world after selling 17.7 million two-wheelers in 2016.
- Two-wheelers and passenger vehicles dominate Indian auto market . Sales of two-wheelers are expected to grow 8-10 per cent.
- Focus shifting on electric cars to reduce emissions.
- Innovation is likely to intensify among engine technology & alternative fuels.
- Government aims to build India into an R&D hub.
Company Overview
- Hero Motocorp Ltd., formerly Hero Honda, is an Indian motorcycle and scooter manufacturer based in New Delhi, India. The company is the largest two-wheeler manufacturer in the world, and also in India,
- It has a total market share of 36% in 2- wheeler industry and 50% market share in Motorcycles category and 10% market share of scooters.
- Motorcycles form the major chunk of revenue, contributing about 90% to volumes, while scooters contribute 10% to volumes.
- Hero is a domestically focused company deriving about 97% of volumes from the Indian market. Entry-level motorcycles (75 cc to 110 cc) form a major chunk of about 78% of overall volumes.
- It has 4 globally benchmarked manufacturing facilities; two of these are based at Gurgaon and Dharuhera which are located in the state of Haryana in Northern India.
- The third manufacturing plant is based at Haridwar, in the hill state of Uttrakhand.
- The latest addition is the state-of the-art Hero Garden Factory in Neemrana, Rajasthan.
Valuation
INCOME STATEMENT OF Hero Motocorp(FORECASTING) | |||||
Particulars | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Sales | 35107.1 | 37494.387 | 40044.01 | 42767 | 45675.15 |
COGS | 23342.71 | 24930.018 | 26625.26 | 28435.78 | 30369.41 |
Gross Profit | 11764.39 | 12564.369 | 13418.75 | 14331.22 | 15305.74 |
Employee Cost | 1643.012 | 1754.7373 | 1874.059 | 2001.495 | 2137.597 |
Excise Duty | 684.5885 | 731.14054 | 780.8581 | 833.9565 | 890.6655 |
Other Expenses | 3816.142 | 4075.6398 | 4352.783 | 4648.773 | 4964.889 |
Depreciation | 596.8208 | 637.40458 | 680.7481 | 727.039 | 776.4776 |
Operating Profit | 5023.827 | 5365.4468 | 5730.297 | 6119.957 | 6536.114 |
Interest | 7.021421 | 7.4988774 | 8.008801 | 8.553399 | 9.135031 |
EBT | 5016.805 | 5357.9479 | 5722.288 | 6111.404 | 6526.979 |
TAX | 1479.958 | 1580.5946 | 1688.075 | 1802.864 | 1925.459 |
PAT | 3536.848 | 3777.3533 | 4034.213 | 4308.54 | 4601.52 |
Assumptions
- The sales growth in this valuation was taken as 6.8% because as two wheeler sector in the year 17-18 grew by almost 8%.
- So it is assumed that Hero Motocorp being a market leader will grow atleast by 6.8%.
- Following are the assumption of expenses which are considered as percent of sales i.e same as per year 2018.
Particulars | Percent of Sales |
COGS | 66.49% |
Employee Cost | 4.68% |
Excise Duty | 1.95% |
Other Expenses | 10.87% |
Depreciation | 1.70% |
Interest | 0.02% |
- Tax was assumed as 29.5%.
CASH FLOWS | ||||||
Particulars | calculation | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
NOPAT | EBIT(1-TAX) | 3541.798 | 3782.64 | 4039.859 | 4314.57 | 4607.961 |
Depreciation | 1.70% | 596.8208 | 637.40458 | 680.7481 | 727.039 | 776.4776 |
Change in working Captial |
| -189.611 | 44.110335 | -199.505 | 33.54352 | -210.79 |
Capex |
| -357.89 | -348.64 | -372.35 | -397.67 | -424.71 |
Free Cash Flows |
| 3591.117 | 4115.5161 | 4148.757 | 4677.487 | 4748.941 |
DF(1.12325) |
| 0.890274 | 0.7925874 | 0.70562 | 0.628195 | 0.559265 |
FCF |
| 3197.078 | 3261.9061 | 2927.445 | 2938.372 | 2655.918 |
Part A |
| 14980.72 |
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