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Valuation report, the automotive industry

Cours : Valuation report, the automotive industry. Recherche parmi 300 000+ dissertations

Par   •  22 Août 2019  •  Cours  •  525 Mots (3 Pages)  •  676 Vues

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Sector Overview.

  • The automotive industry comprises a wide range of companies and organizations involved in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and selling of motor vehicles.
  • Strong Market in terms of both, the domestic demand and exports.

[pic 1]

  • India has significant cost advantages; auto firms save 10-25 per cent on operations.
  • Two-wheelers are by far the most popular form of vehicle in India, taking an 80 per cent share in 2015-16. India became the largest two-wheeler market in the world after selling 17.7 million two-wheelers in 2016.
  • Two-wheelers and passenger vehicles dominate Indian auto market . Sales of two-wheelers are expected to grow 8-10 per cent.
  • Focus shifting on electric cars to reduce emissions.
  • Innovation is likely to intensify among engine technology & alternative fuels.
  • Government aims to build India into an R&D hub.

Company Overview

  • Hero Motocorp Ltd., formerly Hero Honda, is an Indian motorcycle and scooter manufacturer based in New Delhi, India. The company is the largest two-wheeler manufacturer in the world, and also in India,
  • It has a total market share of 36% in 2- wheeler industry and 50% market share in Motorcycles category and 10% market share of scooters.
  • Motorcycles form the major chunk of revenue, contributing about 90% to volumes, while scooters contribute 10% to volumes.
  • Hero is a domestically focused company deriving about 97% of volumes from the Indian market. Entry-level motorcycles (75 cc to 110 cc) form a major chunk of about 78% of overall volumes.
  • It has 4 globally benchmarked manufacturing facilities; two of these are based at Gurgaon and Dharuhera which are located in the state of Haryana in Northern India.
  • The third manufacturing plant is based at Haridwar, in the hill state of Uttrakhand.
  • The latest addition is the state-of the-art Hero Garden Factory in Neemrana, Rajasthan.

Valuation

INCOME STATEMENT OF Hero Motocorp(FORECASTING)

Particulars

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Sales

35107.1

37494.387

40044.01

42767

45675.15

COGS

23342.71

24930.018

26625.26

28435.78

30369.41

Gross Profit

11764.39

12564.369

13418.75

14331.22

15305.74

Employee Cost

1643.012

1754.7373

1874.059

2001.495

2137.597

Excise Duty

684.5885

731.14054

780.8581

833.9565

890.6655

Other Expenses

3816.142

4075.6398

4352.783

4648.773

4964.889

Depreciation

596.8208

637.40458

680.7481

727.039

776.4776

Operating Profit

5023.827

5365.4468

5730.297

6119.957

6536.114

Interest

7.021421

7.4988774

8.008801

8.553399

9.135031

EBT

5016.805

5357.9479

5722.288

6111.404

6526.979

TAX

1479.958

1580.5946

1688.075

1802.864

1925.459

PAT

3536.848

3777.3533

4034.213

4308.54

4601.52

Assumptions

  • The sales growth in this valuation was taken as 6.8% because as two wheeler sector in the year 17-18 grew by almost 8%.
  • So it is assumed that Hero Motocorp being a market leader will grow atleast by 6.8%.
  • Following are the assumption of expenses which are considered as percent of sales i.e same as per year 2018.

Particulars

Percent of Sales

COGS

66.49%

Employee Cost

4.68%

Excise Duty

1.95%

Other Expenses

10.87%

Depreciation

1.70%

Interest

0.02%

  • Tax was assumed as 29.5%.

CASH FLOWS

Particulars

calculation

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

NOPAT

EBIT(1-TAX)

3541.798

3782.64

4039.859

4314.57

4607.961

Depreciation

1.70%

596.8208

637.40458

680.7481

727.039

776.4776

Change in working Captial

 

-189.611

44.110335

-199.505

33.54352

-210.79

Capex

 

-357.89

-348.64

-372.35

-397.67

-424.71

Free Cash Flows

 

3591.117

4115.5161

4148.757

4677.487

4748.941

DF(1.12325)

 

0.890274

0.7925874

0.70562

0.628195

0.559265

FCF

 

3197.078

3261.9061

2927.445

2938.372

2655.918

Part A

 

14980.72

 

 

 

 

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