Econometrics project : what factos lead to deadly car accident throughout the world ?

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ECONOMETRICS PROJECT

What factors lead to deadly car accident throughout the world?

TABLE OF CONTENT

Introduction        3

I-        Project overview        3

A)        The research question        3

B)        The variables        4

II-        The model and our results        4

A)        Database changes        4

B)        Multiple linear regression model        4

III-        Recommendations and conclusion        4

A)        Recommendations        4

B)        Conclusion        4

ANNEXES        5

BIBLIOGRAHY        5

Introduction

Car accident are one of the major cause of death each year. Indeed, according to the OMS, almost 1,25 million of persons died on the road following a car or motorcycle accident. Most of all these accidents are the first cause of death for the young people, aged 15 to 29 years old. Apart from death, car accidents induce important economic losses for the victims, their families and the country as a whole. Indeed, even if there is no worldwide estimation about the cost of car accidents, studies done in 2010 estimated that it represents 3% of the PIB for each country (it can go up to 5% in some countries with low level of income). Always according to the OMS, if nothing is done to reduce the number of car accidents, this would become the seventh mortality cause in the world by 2030.

Thus, the aim of this project is to explain the factors which impact the number of dead on the roads because of car accidents in year. The goal is to understand these factors and make the light on the correlations that may exist with the number of death. Knowing what are the main cause of these accident will help to reduce them as it helps to know what need to be targeted. This model and research can be used by governments and associations to fight and prevent deadly car accident.

In this project we asked ourselves ‘’What factors lead to deadly car accident throughout the world?’’. Others studies about road accidents do exist (see link in the bibliography). Still, we have tried to gather data concerning a significant number of countries to study more deeply potential correlations. Indeed, others studies are more often interpreting general results.

1. Project overview

1. The research question

As said previously the aim of this project is to define clearly which factors have an impact of the car accident worldwide. Thus, with this project we want to find linear relationship and correlation with the number of dead persons on the road per year and our chosen explicative variables.

According to the data we have chosen, we have made different assumptions. These hypotheses are:

• A greatest amount of cars in a country leads to more deadly accident
• The largest a population, the more important is the amount of car accidents
• An important GDP decreases the danger on the roads
• More accidents happen when a population is an important consumer of alcohol
• The length of the road network of a country has an influence on the number of accidents
• An important diesel price helps to reduce the number of accident on the road
• The maximum speed on road influence to a great extend the number of accident
• A low revenue level country means more deadly accidents

We believe these assumptions could indeed explain significantly the number of deadly accident per year.

1. The variables

Quite obviously, our explained data is the number of persons who died on the road per year in each country. We have selected 50 different countries in order to try to represent a quite significant perception of what is the reality worldwide. These countries were chosen quite randomly, we only made sure there was variety in the continents they represented. Data in some countries are complicated to find because of no publication at all, so we also remove these countries to our choice. Having chosen these 50 different countries, we formed our database.

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