DISSERTATION BREXIT

–Topic of writing: Politics -Brexit

Brexit, it is all anyone in Europe is talking about right now. So, because I’m a curious person and because I didn’t have any clue of what it is, I’ve decided that it will be the subject of my writing. So, first things first, BREXIT is a portmanteau, which is when two words are combined to make one word. So, we have Britain and exit, you put them together you get Brexit. It is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU. On the 23rd of June 2016, British people had a referendum, in which 52% voted to leave the EU, and 48% voted to remain within the EU. There was a turnout of 70% which equates to about 30 M people. Britain is England, Scotland and Wales. And the United Kingdom is England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. But, when we say Brexit, Britain exit, we are really talking about the UK.

Now I’ll try to talk about article 50, which is the clause in the 2007 Lisbon Treaty that says that any member state can withdraw from the European Union. It was this article that was initially triggered by Britain when it had its referendum back in June 2016. Soon after the referendum, Theresa May, the British Prime Minister coined this phrase “Brexit means Brexit” but what does that mean? It was simply her way of showing her determination and pledge to the British people, that she would indeed take Britain outside the EU.

Another significant term of the equation is THE TRANSITION PERIOD, which is the period of time between the day the UK leaves the EU which was scheduled to be the 29th of March 2019, and when all the agreements are implemented. That’s expected to be about two years, so December 2020. The timeline may change, depending on the negotiations between the British government and the EU.

So, what are the economic impact of such a decision? The EU is a single Market, it is like one big country, there are neither obstacles nor borders; People, Goods and Money can move freely without limiting borders. The customs union allows members of the EU + Turkey, Andorra, San Marino and Monaco to trade together without tariffs or taxes, and at the same time, they all collectively have to charge the same tariffs on import from outside the EU. The British government and the EU have been negotiating this agreement for two years now. The outcome of these negotiations will determine the way this Brexit will be done. Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit and No Deal Brexit. So let us go through those:

A Hard Brexit will see Britain cut ties with the EU completely, leave the Customs Union and the Single Market. It will therefore give Britain control of its own borders and it is own trade agreement. And that’s what Brexiteers (people who are in favor of Brexit) call taking back control.

A Soft Brexit is slightly different. It will see the UK leave some parts of the EU depending on the agreement made. Britain could remain in some institutions. Like customs Union or the Single Market. Now that’s obviously an idea that is not very popular amongst Brexiteers, who see this as a betrayal of the referendum, and as essentially, not really leaving the EU.

Now, the option that nobody wants, the No-Deal Brexit, as it says, where no agreement is made between the 2 parties, and it will see the UK leaving the EU immediately. There is no transition period, there are hard borders that go up immediately, and new trade agreements will have to be arranged.

And now, the last term, the second referendum. There are calls from people to have a second referendum, the idea here is that, it’s been so difficult to have an agreement, to an agreement on a Brexit that everyone is happy with, so we should go back to the people and decide whether they still want to leave the EU or not. It is controversial because Brexiteers will tell you that the people voted. In 2016, they chose the leave the EU, that was democracy in action.  And on the other side of the spectrum, people who support the second referendum, would say, well we didn’t really understand what we were really voting for, we didn’t get at first sight, how this decision would affect our economy nor our society. Now, we do know much more about Brexit, let’s have a second vote.

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