L'impact de la crise financière à la fin du XXe siècle sur l'économie des États-Unis

When multiple economic calamities struck in the late 20th century – including the Asian financial crisis, the Russian debt default and the collapse of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management – the United States economy did not falter. Growth remained strong. The stock market continued to boom and so did the job market. The rich kept getting richer, but the poor were also making money. The federal budget entered the black and surpluses were projected for years to come.

Contrast that experience with the situation today. A recent report by the International Monetary Fund has found that many countries in Europe, Asia and Latin America are in recession, and many others are on the verge of contracting. It put the chances for recession in the 18-country euro area at 38 percent in the next year. Compared to other countries, the United States is growing modestly.

Unfortunately, this time around, the United States it is likelier to be pulled down by weakness elsewhere than to be a force for recovery.

Granted, the United States could benefit from the problems in other economies. Sluggish growth elsewhere, as well as war, strife and disease, invariably cause a flight to quality, in which global investors put their money into presumably safer American investments.

But increased demand – and rising prices – for stocks, bonds and real estate don’t readily translate into better lives for most Americans. Rather, they tend to exacerbate already high levels of inequality because the ownership of assets is concentrated among the wealthy. Besides, the flight to quality will not necessarily offset the potential economic harm to the U.S. if its trading partners succumb to recession.

A lack of resiliency in the U.S. economy has been on display many times since the recession ended in mid-2009. In 2011, the Japanese nuclear disaster was blamed for setting back the recovery. In 2012, it was the euro crisis. Last year, it was winter weather.

All of those events were disruptive. But the reason they had an outsized impact on the United States is that the economy was already vulnerable, in large part because Congress and the Obama administration provided too little fiscal stimulus and too little foreclosure aid for too short a time to repair the damage from the recession and financial crisis. To the extent that congressional Democrats and administration officials have tried to provide more help, their plans have been squashed by the Republican desire to thwart President Obama.

There is an important lesson in this for the Federal Reserve as it faces a decision on when to remove monetary stimulus by raising interest rates. In the past five years, the Fed has tended to overestimate the strength of the economy. Clearly then, the danger of raising rates too soon is greater than the risk of waiting and watching for signs of real recovery before acting. It is especially important to hold off on rate increases until hourly wages start to grow, because wage growth would be a sign that economic gains are finally reaching all Americans.

There is also an important lesson for voters this fall. The economy will not fully recover until investments and protections that only government can provide are undertaken. Needed investments include those in infrastructure, education, the environment, science and health. Needed protections include those for borrowers, investors, immigrants,

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