Analyse d'investissements - en anglais

FOR RELEASE:

9:30 a.m. EDT, July 16, 2012 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

UNTIL RELEASED

Nurturing Credibility While Managing Risks to Growth

Fiscal adjustment is proceeding generally as expected in advanced economies, with headline and underlying fiscal deficits that are broadly in line with projections in the April 2012 Fiscal Monitor. Overall, advanced economy deficits are forecast to decline by about ¾ percentage point of GDP this year and about 1 percent of GDP next year in both headline and cyclically adjusted terms, a rate that strikes a compromise between restoring fiscal sustainability and supporting growth. However, continued focus on nominal deficit targets runs the risk of compelling excessive fiscal tightening if growth weakens. In addition, there is a risk in the United States of political gridlock that puts fiscal policy on autopilot and results in a sharp and sudden decline in deficits—the “fiscal cliff.” In most advanced economies, a steady pace of adjustment focused on the measures to be implemented rather than on headline deficit targets is preferable, especially in light of heightened downside risks to the outlook. In most emerging economies, headline and cyclically adjusted deficits are projected to remain broadly unchanged over 2012–13, which is appropriate given these countries’ generally stronger fiscal positions and the downside risks to the global economy. However, some emerging economies need to be more ambitious to reduce vulnerabilities.

Underlying fiscal adjustment on track

Fiscal imbalances are being gradually corrected in line with expectations in most advanced economies. Cyclically adjusted deficits in 2012–13 are expected to fall by close to 1 percent of GDP annually on average in advanced economies—about the same amount as last year and broadly as projected in the April 2012 Fiscal Monitor—with greater reductions in countries under market pressure (Table 1, Figure 1).

The two largest such countries are implementing sizeable fiscal consolidation in the next two years in efforts to improve debt dynamics and regain market confidence.

• Market turbulence has intensified in Spain due to renewed concerns about the health of the financial system and its possible fiscal

implications (Figure 2). Despite an ambitious and largely expenditure-based consolidation package, revenue underperformance due to the recession and higher spending pressures from unemployment insurance costs, social security outlays and interest payments were expected to push the deficit close to 7 percent of GDP this year before the announcement of new measures on July 11. This is about 1 percent of GDP more than projected in April, but still about 2 percentage points of GDP below last year’s outturn. The cyclically adjusted deficit projection had also been revised up. This may reflect factors that are leading to a temporary increase in the sensitivity of the budget balance to output. Deficit targets have been revised to 6.3 percent of GDP this year and 4.5 percent of GDP next year under the EU’s Excessive

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

2 Fiscal Monitor Update, July 2012

Est.200820092010201120122013201120122013Overall Fiscal BalanceAdvanced economies-3.5-8.8-7.6-6.5-5.8-4.70.0-0.1-0.2United States-6.7-13.0-10.5-9.6-8.2-6.80.0-0.1-0.5Euro area-2.1-6.4-6.2-4.1-3.2-2.50.00.00.2France-3.3-7.6-7.1-5.2-4.5-3.90.10.10.0Germany-0.1-3.2-4.3-1.0-0.7-0.40.00.10.2Greece2-12.2-15.6-10.5-9.2-7.0-2.70.00.21.9Ireland-7.3-14.0-31.2-13.1-8.3-7.5-3.30.2-0.2Italy-2.7-5.4-4.5-3.9-2.6-1.50.0-0.20.1Portugal-3.7-10.2-9.8-4.2-4.5-3.0-0.20.00.0Spain3-4.5-11.2-9.3-8.9-7.0-5.9-0.4-1.0-0.2Japan-4.1-10.4-9.4-10.1-9.9-8.60.00.10.2United Kingdom-5.0-10.4-9.9-8.6-8.1-7.10.1-0.2-0.5Canada-0.1-4.9-5.6-4.4-3.8-2.90.2-0.20.0Emerging economies0.2-4.5-3.3-1.7-1.9-2.0-0.1-0.3-0.3China-0.4-3.1-2.3-1.2-1.3-1.00.00.00.0India-8.8-9.7-9.4-8.9-8.9-8.8-0.2-0.6-0.6Russia4.9-6.3-3.51.60.1-0.70.0-0.5-0.4Turkey-2.4-5.6-2.7-0.3-1.7-2.00.00.00.0Brazil-1.3-3.0-2.7-2.6-1.9-2.10.00.50.3Mexico-1.1-4.7-4.3-3.4-2.4-2.20.0-0.1-0.1South Africa-0.5-5.3-4.8-4.5-4.4-3.80.1-0.1-0.1Low-income economies-1.0-4.0-2.7-2.4-3.0-2.5-0.1-0.1-0.2General Government Cyclically Adjusted Balance (Percent of potential GDP)Advanced economies-3.8-6.0-6.1-5.4-4.7-3.6-0.2-0.2-0.2United States4-5.5-7.9-8.1-7.5-6.3-5.0-0.4-0.4-0.6Euro area-3.1-4.5-4.6-3.3-2.0-1.40.00.00.1France-3.1-5.1-5.1-3.8-3.1-2.60.20.10.1Germany-1.3-1.3-3.4-1.2-0.6-0.40.00.00.1Greece2-16.4-18.5-12.5-9.0-4.50.2-2.20.12.9Ireland-11.9-10.6-9.8-7.7-6.0-5.6………Italy-3.3-3.0-3.1-2.7-0.50.70.0-0.20.0Portugal-3.6-8.8-9.1-2.9-2.1-0.9-0.2-0.1-0.1Spain3-5.6-9.7-7.6-7.3-5.0-3.9-0.4-1.1-0.3Japan-3.5-7.4-7.9-8.2-8.8-7.90.0-0.10.1United Kingdom-7.2-9.7-8.4-6.6-5.5-4.2-0.3-0.4-0.4Canada-0.6-2.6-4.1-3.4-3.0-2.20.2-0.20.0Emerging economies-1.5-3.6-3.1-1.9-1.7-1.70.0-0.10.0China0.0-2.4-1.50.00.00.20.00.00.0India-8.8-9.8-9.6-9.1-9.0-8.70.0-0.20.0Russia3.9-3.3-2.21.7-0.2-1.10.1-0.4-0.3Turkey-3.2-4.7-3.4-1.8-2.8-2.80.00.00.0Brazil-2.1-2.2-3.2-2.8-1.5-2.0-0.10.60.3Mexico-1.3-3.8-3.9-3.2-2.4-2.20.0-0.1-0.1South Africa-2.3-5.1-4.5-4.1-3.7-3.30.1-0.1-0.1General Government Gross DebtAdvanced economies81.695.4101.5105.6110.0112.20.00.81.0United States76.189.998.4102.8106.7110.7-0.10.10.5Euro area70.280.085.888.191.492.40.01.41.4France68.379.282.486.188.290.1-0.2-0.9-0.7Germany66.974.783.581.282.280.1-0.33.32.7Greece2112.6129.0144.5165.4162.6171.04.69.410.1Ireland44.265.192.5108.2117.6121.23.24.43.5Italy105.8116.1118.7120.11258126.40.02.52.6Portugal71.683.193.3107.8114.4118.61.02.03.3Spain340.253.961.268.590.396.50.011.212.5Japan191.8210.2215.3229.923.5240.00.1-1.3-1.1United Kingdom52.568.475.182.388.692.7-0.20.21.3Canada71.183.685.184.785.482.7-0.30.70.8Emerging economies33.335.440.136.434.232.70.00.30.5China17.017.733.525.822.019.40.00.00.0India75.272.267.767.168.068.6-1.00.41.8Russia7.911.311.812.011.511.32.43.13.4Turkey40.046.142.239.436.034.60.00.00.0Brazil63.566.965.264.964.261.7-1.2-0.9-1.4Mexico43.144.542.943.842.742.90.0-0.10.0South Africa27.431.535.338.740.241.3-0.10.20.5Low-income countries40.842.540.239.341.639.70.40.90.3Memorandum:World Growth (Percent)2.8-0.65.33.93.53.90.0-0.1-0.22 For Greece, projections to be revised.3 For Spain, projections do not reflect the measures announced on July 11, 2012. 4 Excluding financial sector support.(Percent of GDP, except where otherwise noted)ProjectionsDifference from April 2012 Fiscal Monitor1Table 1. Fiscal Indicators, 2008–13Sources: IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: All fiscal data country averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to U.S. dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based

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