Theories of conflict

2. Syrian Conflict

2.1 General Background

The Syrian civil violence against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has escalated into a full-scale war and is now a matter of global concern (Council on Foreign Relation, 2014). The crisis began with a peaceful demonstration in March 2011, that later turned into the violence it is now (BBC 2014; Human Rights Watch 2011). As the conflict was developing, there began to surface various phenomena unconventional to the normal setup of wars as we have previously known. Protestors were fast supported by armed rebels from various platforms, but retaliated by way of severe government crackdowns (Arnold 2012; BBC 2014). Proliferation of small arms has never been so evident in any civil unrest compared to what we have seen in the Syrian crisis (Small Arms Survey, 2014). The dynamics of war fast developed into a near conventional warfare between the forces faithful to Assad and those opposing him (Lawson n.d., 84). This, however, was not enough. Other dimensions began to surface, thus indicating that this conflict had become very different from all forms of violence and conflicts that anthologies of war had previously alluded to. Support pouring into the hub of the conflict was one spectacular aspect. Everything from everywhere seemed to siphon into the conflict-ridden areas and the Assad government was apparently taken aback by the resilience posed by the rebels. The economy of Syria, on the other hand, was severely affected and bore the brunt in terms of regional bearing. Transnational ethnicities have come to the rescue of their kind and, unsurprisingly, the international community had its role to play in the form of division between the interests-based power blocs (Economist 2013).

As a result, conflict in Syria has been a mixture of various elements that are often cited by New War theorists. It is unclear as to whether it is a revolution or a civil war, although one thing is for certain that this crisis contains elements that have made it messier and untidy than would be anticipated by conventional war theorists. It has brought a new dilemma in the Middle East, with a new kind of threat to Arab nations and the world.

2.2 Major Actors of the Syrian Conflict

Kaldor claims that New Wars are fought by varying combinations of networks of state and non-state actors (2001, p. 2). On this note, the major actors involved in the Syrian conflict concur with the conclusions drawn by Kaldor’s ‘New Wars’. There are numerous rebel groups, loyalists, Kurds, and foreign fighters active in a different sector of the country. There are also many international actors involved in the conflict, with their vested interests. Likewise, the conflict has also drawn in Syria’s neighbours, either as the affected or as protagonists to the incumbent government. Thus, the involvement of various domestic and international players has made the conflict more complex. The situation in Syria can be described as a multifaceted interaction among a wide range of actors, each connected to the others in innumerable ways.

Syria’s geographical location, economic interests, and political concern have drawn international actors such as Russia, the United States of America, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia as well as the neighbouring countries such as Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey into the conflict as friend or foe to either of the conflicting parties (Calabrese 2012; Economist 2013). In the meantime, all bordering states fear both the Assad regime and the rebel opposition, while the aftermath of the conflict is of equal concern. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) confirms that the conflict has resulted in the death and displacement of mass population, with several factions fighting each other for or against the Assad regime (2014). While the numerous rebel groups formed within the conflict period have the common goal of overthrowing the Assad regime, various self-interests do still remain. Thus, the country has been a patchwork under the control of a group of competing rebel factions.

James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence (United States of America) claims that an estimated 75,000 to 115,000 insurgents organised into more than 1,500 groups are active on Syrian ground (2014). He also states that Jihadist groups such as the Al-Nusrah Front, Ahrar al-Sham, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), with more than 20,000 fighters, are active in Syria. He further claims that 7,500-plus foreign fighters from some 50 countries have made it more complicated. Rebel groups such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA) nominally represented abroad by the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the Syrian Liberation Front, the Syrian Islamic Front, and Kurdish groups are fighting the regime affiliated force with the unified goal of ousting President Assad (Sofer & Shafroth, 2013). These coalitions are allied groupings of different brigades from across Syria, which are not under the uniform command structure. These alliances and their subunits have their own tactics, constituencies, and visions of Syria’s future. The forces fighting for President Bashar al-Assad include the Syrian armed forces, National Defence Forces (NDF), allied paramilitary groups, Hezbollah from Lebanon, and Al-Quds forces, as well as Basij militia from Iran (Clarion Project, 2014).

Another rebel group, the Jaysh al-Mujahideen (JM), under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Jumaa Bakour, was formed in western Aleppo at the start of 2014 with the coalition of 15 armed opposition units. This group represents an offensive against ISIL (Carter Center 2014). The Carter Center further affirms that on August 3, 2014, 17 armed opposition groups established the Revolutionary Command Council, a new alliance with a coailition of 17 armed groups and 23 additional armed groups joining the alliance (Carter Center 2015, p. 18). Thus, the circumstances of the Syrian conflict include numerious armed groups on the ground and various regional and external actors supporting the New War theory that multiple state and non-state actors should be present in the conflict.

2.3 The Motives of the Actors Involved in Syrian Conflict.

Kaldor claims that New Wars take place in the context of the breakdown of state authority and power, which creates a vacuum for the non state groups to emerge (2001). This is certainly the case with Syria, where rebel groups, and especially jihadists, have emerged and started controlling the population as well as the war economy due to the political conflict between the Assad regime and the opposition party. Kaldor further argues that, in contrast with the conventional type of warfare, New Wars are fought in the name of identity (ethnic, religious of

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