Conflit Libyen

Bryan Capdevila, Soekhi Han

 Libya : Do you think that armed conflicts are likely to expand in the coming years ?

Table of contents

Introduction                                                                                                   3

Timeline                                                                                                  4

Libya’s political and military situation, today                                                          5

Part One : A divided country                                                                          6

Political and ethnical rivalries                                                                          6

First Civil War (2011)                                                                                                

Second Civil War (2014-present)                                                                          8

Part Two : Different actors, different purposes                                                                      9

Militias                                                                                                      9

Support for Tobruk                                                                                            10

Backers of the Libya Dawn coalition                                                                        10

Foreign mediators                                                                                        11

What is at stake in the Libyan puzzle?                                                                          12

The return of the fight between militias                                                                12

The economical crisis                                                                                        13

The return of the gaddafists                                                                                14

Migrants crisis and human rights                                                                        14

Islamic State in Libya                                                                                        15

Conclusion                                                                                                                                  16

Libya : soon, a partition?                                                                                16

Online Ressources                                                                                        17

Introduction

        From a constitutional monarchy under King Idriss to an authoritarian regime under Gaddafi, Libya went through a lot of changes in the past decades that allowed some instabilities to emerge in the political landscape. Composed by many different historical ethnic tribes, the country still seeks for social stability through nationalism and economic balance.

        The rise of Arab Spring in 2011, among North African countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Libya became the trigger to a revolution for a change in the country, after more than forty years of dictatorship. Then started the first Libyan civil war in which many tribes and clans turned into armed militias to join the rebel forces against Gaddafi’s dictatorial regime and the supremacy of his clan and loyal allies. Helped by many international actors such as France, UK or Qatar that seem to have found some interest in the conflict, the revolution finally succeed with the dictator’s death during the battle of Sirte. However, the end of the revolution left the country devastated and more divided than ever since tribal militias and numerous armed groups that fought during the war seek for rewards and political influences in a climate of chaos because of a lack of political unity. Therefore, the second civil war began opposing rival forces which try to establish their political legitimacy.

        The country then becomes again a war zone in which many external actors such as terrorist groups or countries have a role to play for geopolitical matters. The fate of Libya seems to put in light some crucial international issues.

Timeline : from independence to the National Transitional Council

• 1951, December 24th : Libya becomes an independent country as a constitutional monarchy represented by the King Idriss El-Sennoussi
• During the 60’s : Libya improves its oil facilities and develop the control of routing the extracted oil efficiently in order to get exported away.
• 1969 : Military coup d’état organized by colonel Muammar Gaddafi and a group of officers calling themselves « the freedom officer ». The king Idriss is no more.
• 1970 : Libya keep its distance with the west by closing British and American military bases in Tobruk and Tripoli. Policy of rapprochement with Egypt and Syria.
• 1973 : Gaddafi launches a « Cultural revolution » like Mao did in China.
• 1977 : Establishment of an islamic and socialist Libya renamed Jamahiriya popular and socialist Arab Libya. Gaddafi’s government becomes more dictatorial and the economy begins to decline.
• During the 80’s : Libya’s attempt to fusion with other Arab countries such as Syria but failed. Growing influence of Libya in Central Africa (Intervention during Tchad Civil War). The country is getting diplomatically isolated because of helping terrorism.
• 1987 : Economic liberalization of the country.
• 1990-1999 : Libya is sanctioned to a embargo by the UN because of implications in several terrorist attempts for airlines crashes in Scotland and in Tchad.
• Since 1999 : Gaddafi tries to improve Libya’s relationships with western countries such as the UK and the US.
• 2003: The UN and the international community tend to have a better opinion of Libya’s improvement and the country is chosen to lead the Human Rights commission of the UN.
• 2005: American oil companies are finally authorized to set in Libya.
• 2010: Revolution of Arab Spring begins in Egypt and Tunisia. These protest movements start to reach some Libyan Cities.
• 2011, February 27th : Rise of a National Transition Council created in Benghazi in order to overthrow Gaddafi’s regime and guide the country to the democracy.
• 2011, March 19th: French forces began the military intervention in Libya, later joined by coalition forces with air strikes on Libyan air defense systems, as UN Security Council Resolution 1973 called for using "all necessary means" to protect civilians and their rights.
• 2011, August : Anti-Gaddafi’s forces finally take Tripoli. The War is almost over.
• 2011, October 20th : Gaddafi is killed during the battle of Sirte.
• 2011, October 23rd : The NTC proclaims the end of the dictatorship and the establishment of a islamic regime based on charia.

Libya’s political and military situation, today (Wikipedia):

Part One : A divided country

Political and ethnic rivalries

        As a tribal country, Libya needs to rely on several regional consensus and different ethnies connections that can allow social and economic stability for the country. In a country that has lived under the brutal dictatorship of Gaddafi for more than forty years, the majority of Libyans depend on their tribal connection in order to obtain their rights, and for protection, and even in order to find a job. Therefore, tribes do have a central place in Libyan society.

...