Universal basic income in Kenya

Louis Massé                                                                                  Economía del gasto publico

Universal Basic Income: What are the outcomes and the limits of the Kenya trial ?

I-Introduction

Nowadays, we hear a lot about the UBI, may it be in reference to philosophy, politics or history and geography. However, we can ask ourselves whether the concept of UBI is a recent invention, or if it was a preexistent concept which generated more interest over the last few years. Thomas Moore and Thomas Paine were the first philosophers to speak about this concept. Both of these philosophers introduced the concept of a UBI as a way of fighting disparities amongst human beings. In Moore’s case experiment, UBI or guaranteed income, appears as a tool which would prevent people from having to steal to survive. On the other hand, in Paine’s case, it would also be a means towards a more egalitarian society, where people who have been left without land would not be left without resources. As we have seen, both of these philosophers, amongst others, have introduced the notion of a UBI, and nowadays, we are able to define the UBI in a more specific matter. Indeed a universal basic income is a type of program in which citizens (or permanent residents) of a country may receive a regular sum of money from a source such as the government. A pure or unconditional basic income has no means test.

This essay will focus on a UBI trial in Kenya and shed light on the outcomes and the limits of this trial. Firstly, we will explain what the trial consists in, and then develop on the results if this trial.

II-THE EXPERIENCE 

1)The details

The experience comes from a US private company called Givedirectly, it began in october 2016 and cost 30 million dollars. It is the largest trial on the basic income to date, both in terms of size and duration. Indeed, this can be explained by the fact that the experience will last 12 years and that more than 16,000 people, living in 295 different rural Kenyan villages, will take part in this experience.

It is also unique among current experiments because the trial experiment will have an impact on villages rather than individuals. This means that, unlike the studies occurring in Finland, Ontario, the Netherlands, and in other countries, the GiveDirectly experiment will be able to observe the community-level effects of the basic income.

2)Different factors of the case study

In this trial, Givedirectly will assign all these people to 4 different groups, in order to see how these people will manage their money, what the impact of receiving a UBI will be on these different groups.

These are the four different groups:

1. Comparaison group: 100 villages will not receive payments. Which serves as a control group, which allows to see the difference with the others

2. Long-term UBI: 44 villages will receive payments sufficient to cover basic needs, it is 2,250 Kenyan shillings which represents about 20 euros per month during for 12 years.

3. Short-term UBI: 80 villages will receive the same amount for two years.

4. Lump sum UBI: 71 villages will receive one-time payments equivalent to the short-term UBI transfers (about 400 euros per adult).

3) How the trial will be beneficial for research on the UBI

What researchers will mesure:

The only difference between the long-term and short-term UBI recipients will be their expectations of receiving payments in the future. Researchers will be able to compare outcomes for both groups, which will enable them to understand the relative importance of the transfers themselves and the expectation of transfers on behavior. Researchers will also contrast the effects of the lump sum payments to the short-term and long-term UBI. Researchers are measuring a large range of outcomes, including economic status (income, consumption, assets, and food security), time use (work, education, leisure, community involvement), risk-taking (particularly the choice to migrate or start a business), gender relations (particularly female empowerment), and aspirations and outlook on life.

III- The outcomes

1) Possibles outcomes of the trial

Since the trial is not over we can only imagine the possible consequences of this experience.

I think that the first group will be unhappy not to receive money, they will find it unfair and that might might lead to violence with the others groups

The second group, as they will receive money continuously during 12 years, will be able to make more projects than the third group. Indeed, receiving money over 12 years represents a form of stability which does not occur when receiving money for 2 years.

...