Poland economic analysis

Economic Pestel Analisys

One of the things wich Poland should feel most proud of is how its economies trend growth and growth constantly. Since the liberalism process they started in 1990 all the economies sector from the country have enjoyed a unique and enviable growth and wealth, accompanied with efficient policies wich achieve a growth in GDP, foreing investment, exports, prívate consumption, and employment, wich in the whole put Poland on the tops of some rankings.

Nowadays the range of Poland in the World Economic Forum ( WEF* ) is the number 37, a really good position for a country wich only 30 years ago was defined as an underveloped economy.

MACROECONOMICAL ANALISYS STRUCTURE

GDP

• Anual GDP
• GDP percapita
• Investment/GDP
• Gobernment spending/GDP
• Consumption: inflation, Consumer Price Inflation

Foreign Direct Investment

Foreign Debt & Foreign Exchange reserves

Exvhange rate

Unemployment %

[pic 1]

GDP

The polish GDP growth from the last year a percentage of 5.1%, an incredible fact that double  the European Union averaged.

The 2018 GDP raises the number of: 583.816 M$ , a number that compared to its neighboring countries (except Germany) perfectly represents the Polish evolution.

Data related with diferents GDPs recopilated from : https://countryeconomy.com

• Germany: 3.951.340 M$
• Slovakia: 106.573M$
• Czech Republic: 245.226 M$
• Ukraine:130.857 M$
• Belarus: 59.643 M$
• Lithuania: 53.302 M$

ANUAL GDP M$                                                                 PIB PERCAPITA $

[pic 2]  [pic 3]

Graphics from: https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/poland

Poland has been growing with and averaged of 4% since 2000. The comparison between this growth and the Euro Zone growth of the GDP is really impressive ( EU GDP growth: around 2.9%).

The main reason of this difference is the big Crisis wich started in 2008 caused by the bankruptcy of Lemhan Brothers, wich affect the Euro. Fortunately in 2004, when Poland became a member from the UE, Poland didnt comply the necessaries requierememts to change its currency, and when the crisis arrived, Poland could still growing in its bubble, with its own currency.

Regarding to the GDP Per Capita, the Growht of it is awesome aswell, in the last 10 years the GDP pc increases around 10.000$ pc. This fact insulated could be a reflect of a big inflation, or others macroeconomic issues, but in the Poland case the reason cames from its population, and the growth of it. The current population (18/oct/2019) is 37.887.768 people. After 1950 the population growth started decreasing, even negative, as we can see in the graphic. So the combination between a fastly GDP growth and a population number stagnation, end with a incredible growth of the GDPpc.

Population Growth

 [pic 4]Graphic from: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/poland-population/

GDP forecast:

[pic 5]table: https://www.nbp.pl/en/publikacje/raport_inflacja/necmod_july_2019.pdf(Narodowy Bank Polski,8/july/2019)

Comparison of UE GDP countries ( CURRENT TRILLION US$)

[pic 6]https://data.worldbank.org

In order to understand all the variables inside the GDP formula, we have decided to do some researches, calculations and comaparisons with other countries, to understand better the situation.

Investment/GDP                                                                 Gobernment e./GDP

[pic 7]            [pic 8]

(Tables made by ourselves with data from: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com )

In these two tables there is not any remarkable data that diferenttiates Poland. What we can conclude about this graphics, and comparisons, is that Poland directs its policies about public expenditure and attract investment as good as Germany, wich we can consider a good example.

Inflation- Consumer Price Index

[pic 9]inflation percentage growth

Graphic from: https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/inflation-cpi

we can think that the decreasing of the inflation even reaching deflation level between 2011-2016 could be caused by the european crisis, which reduced the demand of some strong points on polish industry like machinery, iron and steel for the construction, wich is also a remarkable fact, but the real cause of this, was the political situation: from 2007 to 2014 the right government was lidered by the right political side, a coalition between PO-PSL, is in 2012 when their popularity started decreasing and is in 2015 when the conservative party wins with Andrzej Duda in the head, aproving new controversial measures. 

This period of uncertainty and policies changes caused a devaluation of the currency that can be translated into: -prices, +layoffs, -salaries, -public income, more difficult to return public debt, that is: A reduction in consumption. 

In 2014 it also started a critical tension between Poland, Russia and Ukraine, wich required the NATO mediation.

[pic 10]RUSSIA MILITARY EXPENDING (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/military-expenditure)

Anyway, after the political changes the value of the currency was restored, and nowadays the inflation porcentage is 2.6%, and one of the reasons of the incredible growing of the GDP , is the increasing in the Private consumption.

[pic 11]

https://www.nbp.pl/en/publikacje/raport_inflacja/necmod_july_2019.pdf(Narodowy Bank Polski,8/july/2019)

The products where we can find a more inflation are: food & non-alcoholic beverages (7.2%), and some of the products wich suffer a deflation are: clothing & transports       (-1,4% & -0.2%)

The fluctuations from the inflation explain perfectly the variation of the Poland Consumer Price Index (CPI), showing clear stagnation between 2013-2016, caused by the deflation of those years.

CPI                                                                 Poland Producer Prices  

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