Le Commerce extérieur de la Chine (document en anglais)

Chapter1 China's Foreign Trade: a whole view

1.1 The development of China’s trade and China’s trade surplus

1.1.1 The development of China’s trade after the reform and opening up

Since the reform and opening up of China in 1978, China's foreign trade volume began to increase year by year. Table 1.1 shows that, China's total foreign trade volume saw an increase from 20.6 billion U.S. dollars in 1978 to 2.9728 trillion U.S. dollars in 2010. The data shows that China’s import trade volume has reached 1.3948 trillion U.S. dollars in 2010 which increased 128 folds compared with 10.9 billion U.S. dollars in 1978. According to the statistics, the increase rate of China’s export was more higher than that of import, and the export trade volume stood at 9.8 billion U.S. dollars in 1978, however, which soared to 1.5779 trillion U.S. dollars by 2010, an increase of 160 folds.

During this period, driven by the globalization of economy, world trade volume grew at a rapid pace. However, the growth of China's export was so fast that the share of China's export in world trade continuously rose. In 1980, the proportion of China's exports accounted for less than 1% of the world, ranked 26th. In 1990, the share of China's exports in the world exports rose to 1.8%, ranking in the world exports rose to 15th. In 2000, the share of China's exports in the world exports rose to 4.0%, ranking in the world exports rose to 7th. In 2007, the share of China's exports in the world exports has doubled to 8.8% and became the second largest exporter in the world. In 2009, China overtook Germany for the first time to become the world's largest exporter. China’s exports accounted for nearly 10% of the world exports.

Figure 1.1: China’s foreign trade in 1982-2011

1.1.2 China’s trade surplus and its causes

Before China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the vast majority of scholars predicted that many China's industries would suffer shocks from foreign products, and "The Collapse of China" was rampant in the Western World. But the fact is that, since 2002, foreign trade brought out new vitality and won one of the best and fastest periods of China’s exports in Chinese history, and the growth rate of China’s exports witnessed a steep rise and faster than ever before, and at the same time China's foreign trade always maintained a surplus, rather than "collapse". In 2003, China's exports and imports reached the level of 438 billion U.S. dollars and 413 billion U.S. dollars, and the export and import growth rates were 34.6% and 39.8%, respectively. In 2004, the growth rate of export and import reached a very high level, an increase of 35.4% and 36%.

From 2005 to 2008, although the growth rate of import and export experienced a slight decline, the trade surplus has risen sharply. In 2005, China's trade surplus amounted to 96 billion dollars. In 2006, the surplus was 1.85 times of that in 2005, reaching 177 billion U.S. dollars. In 2008, despite the fact that the Chinese government implemented a series of measures designed to reduce the trade surplus, China's trade surplus still reached the highest point, peaking at 298.1 billion U.S. dollars. In 2009, China's exports was hardly hit and saw a fall because of the world financial crisis, appearing a short-term deficit in several months. But as the gradually recovery of global economy from its recession, China's exports increased just as expected, and in 2010 China’s trade surplus arrived at 183.1 billion U.S. dollars. Table 1.1 provides the available data on China's trade with the world. We can find that China's trade surplus experienced a decline trend after the world financial crisis.

Table 1.1: China’s foreign trade,1978-2010 ($ billion）

Year Total Exports Imports Balance

1978 206 98 109 -11

1980 381 181 200 -19

Table1.1 : China’s foreign trade development ( 1982-2011，100 million U.S. dollars)

Total trade Trade in goods Trade in Services

Years Export Import Balance Export Import Balance Export Import Balance

1982 248.0 211.5 36.5 223.2 192.9 30.4 24.8 18.7 6.1

1983 246.9 232.3 14.6 222.3 213.9 8.4 24.7 18.4 6.3

1984 289.2 300.4 -11.2 261.4 274.1 -12.7 27.8 26.3 1.5

1985 302.8 445.1 -142.4 273.5 422.5 -149.0 29.3 22.6 6.6

1986 345.5 449.3 -103.8 309.4 429.0 -119.6 36.1 20.3 15.9

1987 436.7 455.5 -18.8 394.4 432.2 -37.8 42.3 23.4 19.0

1988 522.4 585.9 -63.6 475.2 552.7 -77.5 47.2 33.3 14.0

1989 569.9 627.2 -57.3 525.4 591.4 -66.0 44.5 35.7 8.8

1990 678.4 574.6 103.8 620.9 533.5 87.5 57.5 41.1 16.4

1991 787.7 677.3 110.5 719.1 637.9 81.2 68.6 39.4 29.3

1992 940.5 897.9 42.6 849.4 805.9 43.6 91.1 92.1 -1.0

1993 1027.4 1155.2 -127.9 917.4 1039.6 -122.2 109.9 115.6 -5.7

1994 1373.6 1314.0 59.6 1210.1 1156.2 53.9 163.5 157.8 5.7

1995 1672.1 1567.2 104.9 1487.8 1320.8 167.0 184.3 246.3 -62.0

1996 1716.2 1612.0 104.1 1510.5 1388.3 122.2 205.7 223.7 -18.0

1997 2073.0 1700.9 372.0 1827.9 1423.7 404.2 245.0 277.2 -32.2

1998 2075.9 1667.0 408.9 1837.1 1402.4 434.8 238.8 264.7 -25.9

1999 2211.0 1966.7 244.3 1949.3 1657.0 292.3 261.7 309.7 -48.0

2000 2793.5 2609.5 184.0 2492.0 2250.9 241.1 301.5 358.6 -57.1

2001 2990.0 2825.9 164.1 2661.0 2435.5 225.5 329.0 390.3 -61.3

2002 3649.8 3412.5 237.3 3256.0 2951.7 304.3 393.8 460.8 -67.0

2003 4846.0 4676.1 169.9 4382.3 4127.6 254.7 463.7 548.5 -84.8

2004 6553.8 6328.3 225.5 5933.3 5612.3 321.0 620.6 716.0 -95.5

2005 8358.6 7431.3 927.4 7619.5 6599.5 1020.0 739.1 831.7 -92.6

2006 10604.0 8917.9 1686.1 9689.8 7914.6 1775.2 914.2 1003.3 -89.1

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