Facteurs du marché du logement américain (document en anglais)

The Housing Market in USA :

Introduction :

If there was any doubt that the housing market was undergoing a recovery, even a modest one in the face of the terrible 2008 decline, those doubts should be erased by now. Recent housing data has indicated that the years of falling property prices in the US may finally be over. (Appendice: 1)

A key measure of the health of the housing market comes out later and for the first time in a long time, hopes are rising that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index will confirm what appears to be the first signs of a recovery.

Actually, in September, the american housing market showed the largest increase in more than four years, confirming the restart of the real estate market, which should support the recovery of the entire U.S. economy.

1) Factors of the american housing market:

a) Demographic:

Demographics are the data that describes the composition of a population, such as age, race, gender, income,...These statistics are often neglected but significant factor that involves how real estate is priced and what types of properties are in demand. Major shifts in the demographics of a nation can have a large impact on real estate trends for several decades.

the plain fact is that with the retirement of the baby boomers, the biggest retirement wave in American history, a very large number of empty-nesters will be looking to cash out large houses .

b) Financial:

Interest rates also have a major impact on the real estate markets. Changes in interest rates can greatly influence a person's ability to purchase a residential property. That is because as the interest rates fall, the cost to obtain a mortgage to buy a home decreases, which creates a higher demand for real estate, which pushes prices up. Conversely, as interest rates rise, the cost to obtain a mortgage increases, thus lowering demand and prices of real estate.

c) Governemental:

Legislation is also another factor that can have a sizable impact on property demand and prices. Tax credits, deductions and subsidies are some of the ways the government can temporarily boost demand for real estate for as long as they are in place.

d) Political:

The next president will have to decide how much of the housing market will continue to be subsidized by the federal government, and through what structure.

The administration has put forward a plan to help more responsible borrowers refinance their mortgages ,while taking concrete steps to help families stay in their homes, revitalize the communities hardest hit by the housing crisis, and reform the mortgage lending market to better protect both consumers and taxpayers.

e) Economical:

Another key factor that affects the value of real estate is the overall health of the economy, this is generally measured by economic indicators such as:

• Unemployment:

When more people are employed, more people are also able to afford homes, and housing prices, in turn, increase.

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